Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Mamo #81: Valenti relenties

Goodbye, Jack Valenti. Hello, high definition. Also, look out, because Spiderman will be here soon. Mamo spends the time.

14 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Spidey will break records this weekend. The single day record & the weekend record. Overseas its already performing better than the previous two.
Even with mixed reviews it will dominate.
I'm thinking 150mil for the weekend. 400 mil overall. Its on over 4,000 screens the biggest rollout ever. I have my tickets for saturday.

Ky in Boston

5:40 PM  
Blogger Mattvideo said...

I agree with your weekend prediction. I disagree with the overall number. Each successive Spidey has been even more outrageously front loaded than the last, and with what is about to come out, this one will see evn sharper drop offs. I'm saying 250m by the time Shrek hits, but it is ridiculously down hill from there.

5:45 PM  
Anonymous troubleshooter said...

Just thought I'd drop a comment to say I enjoyed hearing a little tech talk from Matt in the episode.
As for the numbers, well, I've never been good with those, and though i guess it does seem to be a decent means of monitoring the popularity of a movie it does get a little irrelevant for me after a while.
And when will the Spidey hate end?

Kampai(Cheers), from Japan.

1:51 AM  
Blogger Tederick said...

NEVER!!! :)

I'm standing by my original figure on Spidey 3: $375M. Right between Ky's prediction and Matty Price's prediction. But it will be interesting to see if lukewarm critical reception will, in fact, lead to a steeper decline after the first weekend. Might restore my faith in humanity...

9:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My Summer Predictions

1.Spiderman $390
2.P.O.T.C. $345
3.Transformers $275
4.Harry Potter $260
5.Shrek $243
6.Fantastic 4 $205
7. Rush Hour 2 $200
8.Evan Almighty $180
9.Ratatouille $175
10.Bourne Ultimatum $172

Sleeper Hits:

Knocked Up, Becoming Jane, and Bug

I saw a free screening of "Once" last weekend. Its a Irish film set in Dublin and a pretty good musical.

Ky In Boston

11:35 AM  
Anonymous Matthew Fabb said...

X-men 3 was pretty bad and got poor reviews, but that didn't stop it from being the biggest of the franchise. As you guys have mentioned before on Mamo, people are generally a picture behind and the majority of people loved Spider 2. On top of that the black Spidey campagin has been incredible and gotten a lot of people really excited. If Spidey 3 really sucks, it could stop it from getting repeat business, but no matter how bad word of mouth is or reviews are, there's no stopping a large number of people who want to see it for themselves and make their own option.

That said, I don't think Spidey 3 will reach $400 million simply because Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 are around the corner to knock out Spidey's legs.

Speaking of which, I guess it's now or never for my summer's picks. As after Spidey 3 debuts it would be kind of like cheating. I'll hopefully get around to posting them later on today.

Also regarding Blu-ray, that protective seal that they place on disks that makes them more expensive also makes them scratch-proof. Apparently they have done tests where the disks stand up to wire wool scrubbing without scratching. If that is indeed the case, I rather have Blu-ray win the format war because of how easily normal DVDs scratch and then cause problems while watching them. With more info on the same sized disks, small scratches are going to cause a lot more problems.

Meanwhile, hardware companies this year are releasing Holographic Versatile Discs (HVD) for computer storage. It's right now incredibly expensive ($15,000 a reader and $120 to $180 for a disk), but so was every technology in it's first generation. It's only a matter of time before prices go down and these disks can hold anywhere from 300 gigs to 3.9 terabytes (that's 3900 gigs)!! If that wasn't enough, there's work being done on something called Protein-coated disc, which can hold up to 50 terabytes (50,000 gigs)!! However, that's still in the prototype stage and would still be some time before it's released to the public and longer before it comes down in price. I'm just pointing out these technologies because HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have a limited window before something bigger and better comes along.

11:57 AM  
Anonymous troubleshooter said...

Well, in all honesty the main reason im catching the movie tomorrow is to see Bruce's third cameo.

12:36 PM  
Blogger Mattvideo said...

Ky... Thanks for the picks. You're the only one with the guts to post, so far.


Matthew Fabb, regarding the coating making Blu Ray more durable, yes, you're 100% right about that. But that doesn't change the fact that studios are not gonna be thrilled about paying 10 times as much to produce their media. They can't charge any more for the movies just because the coating is better, people aren't buying a coating, they're buying a movie.

The whole argument is kind of roundabout anyways, because even if Blu Ray is initially more durable, it can't be resurfaced the way regular DVD can. You can clean a DVD up to 6 times, removing minor and even major scratches and it comes up like new. I'd rather have something that can be fixed in case of catastrophe, instead of something with no repair option at all. Also, if you do buy some blu-rays, I dare you to take some wire wool to them, no matter what Sony claims.

As for Holo-discs, no major studio is looking at this for the simple reason that 100+ gigs of space is not something necessary for production of 1080p movies. HD-DVD has already proven beyond doubt that you actually don't need more than 30 gigs, which is what makes the blu-ray capacity argument kind of ridiculous. The only way blu-rays get beyond 30 gigs is if they encode in mpeg-2 instead of VC-1 or H264. Mpeg-2 is the least efficient codec around. I've seen movies in HD-DVD, and the same movies in blu-ray, and they look the same, which is to say that both look awesome. There is no way to tell the difference.

8:18 PM  
Anonymous Matthew Fabb said...

Matt's Picks

With no dollar amounts because I'm just not that exact.

Spider Man 3
Shrek the Third
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Ratatouille
Fantastic Four 2: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Transformers
Ocean's 13
The Bourne Ultimatum
I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry

Meanwhile I give the sleeper hit to Stardust, which is partly personal bias because I'm a big fan of the book and partly because all early reviews say that the movie is really good.

I think Spidey 3 will be #1 because for a couple of reasons. It has 2 weeks to itself before competition hits. Also as mentioned incredibly effective advertisement campaign with the black costume ads, on top of the fact that the majority of people really liked the 2nd one.

I was going to give the second spot to Pirates, but I think Sheck will beat it because of the appeal that movie has to kids. There isn't another kid movie in the market for quite some time and I think Shrek will have incredible legs because of that.

10:12 PM  
Anonymous Matthew Fabb said...

Well, here's one person on YouTube testing out Sony's claims with the free Talladega Nights disk that came with the PS3. I've since come across a number of blogs that did similar stress tests because they couldn't care less about that free movie. :)

Of course, you are correct that the studios won't want to keep paying this extra cost, I just figured I would mention that as a consumer, I like the idea that it's scratch proof. At the same time, most consumers aren't like me and likely couldn't give a damn about it.

Just looked up the specs on Blu-ray and HD-DVD and apparently HD-DVD can hold 5.1 hours of hi-res video and blu-ray 8.5 hours when using AVC or VC-1. For some strange reason I thought it was a lot less like around 2 hours for HD-DVD, which would be a reason to move to a larger format. For video games and computer storage there's reason to go higher, but you are correct there's no reason to go higher for movies.

10:40 PM  
Blogger Mattvideo said...

Matthew,

I love that video. Thanks for posting the link. I actually think that consumers would like it if their media was less destructible, I just don't think they'll pay for it. As for storage, I agree that the more gigs the better. Bring on the Holographic Protein Coated Magic!

The other weird thing I got out of the HD-DVD seminar is that in a bizarre way having less capacity helps HD-DVD, because for the past 10 years the studios have been marketing to us with the message that more discs=better. (2 disc Special edition! 6 disc box set! etc.) People be;lieve that more discs=better value.

10:55 PM  
Blogger Tederick said...

Ky and Matthew (Fabb, a.k.a. the 3rd Ma),

Love your picks. I think we all generally feel like the summer's heading in the same direction, though we might quibble on place holders. It's interesting to see that there isn't a lot of variance among people's top ten lists this year. So unless there's some massive sleeper upset of a Sixth Sense scale of achievement (unlikely), I think we're all gonna score pretty highly.

2:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saw Spidey Saturday night, liked it but didn't love it. Definitly the weakest of the 3. Way too much CGI. I can't believe they're doing a part 4. Three is enough. My audience clapped at the end. The sad thing was all the trailers were for sequels, except Across the Universe which looks interesting. I'm on my way to Best Buy to pick up "Little Children". I could make a joke but I'm not gonna go there.

Ky in Boston

10:30 AM  
Blogger Uros said...

Just to make sure we'll get a comment from Mamo on this one:
Warner Bros. Halts Movie Previews in Canada

Following reports that many -- if not most -- new movie releases are camcorded in Canada, then reproduced and pirated abroad, Warner Bros. announced Monday that it will no longer hold preview screenings in Canadian cities. In a statement, Warner Bros. distribution chief Dan Fellman said, "We regret having to cancel our screenings in Canada, but our studio must take steps to protect not only our branded assets but our commitment to our filmmakers and to our distributors." Twentieth Century Fox has indicated that it may delay opening films in Canada unless the country passes legislation that would ban camcording in theaters.


source (8 May 2007): http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/

3:42 PM  

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